Recent evolution of surge-related events and assessment of coastal flooding risk on the eastern coasts of the English Channel     

Paolo Antonio Pirazzoli  Stéphane Costa  Uwe Dornbusch  Alberto Tomasin 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(5-6):498-512

This paper is based on statistical analysis of hourly tide measurements for some 285 equivalent full years from the stations of Weymouth, Bournemouth, Portsmouth, Newhaven, Dover and Sheerness in the UK, and of Cherbourg, Le Havre, Dieppe, Boulogne, Calais and Dunkirk in France. For each tidal value, surge heights have been determined and correlated with hourly or three-hourly wind and air pressure data from nearby meteorological stations. Major surges in the area are generally produced by storms associated with wind from north-west or south-west that tend to push oceanic water into the Channel. Recent medium-term climate evolution does not seem to increase the flooding risk at French stations, where surge-related winds tend to decrease in frequency and speed (Cherbourg, Dieppe and Boulogne) or show little change (Le Havre). However, the long-term risk of flooding will increase through the loss in land elevation due to a continuation of the local relative sea-level rise, especially if this effect will be enhanced by an acceleration in the global sea-level rise predicted by climatic models. The northern side of the Channel (Weymouth, Bournemouth and Portsmouth) is mainly exposed to southerly winds that show variable trends. It is also apparently affected by strong subsidence trends during the last two decades. If lasting, such trends can only increase long-term flooding risk. The flooding risk has not increased near the eastern end of the Channel. The duration of significant cyclonic events tends to decrease near Cherbourg but tends to increase near Weymouth, with no conclusive trends in other stations (Portsmouth, Calais and Dunkirk), where extreme surges may occur also in relatively high-air-pressure situations. In conclusion, medium-term coastal flooding risk seems to increase especially at Weymouth, Bournemouth and Portsmouth, and also, but less so, at Le Havre and Sheerness. In addition, few extreme surges occurred during the last decades at the time of spring high tide, which would seem to be a fortunate coincidence or, in some cases, an effect of tide–surge interaction. The risk of occurrence of less favourable random events in the near future is therefore of concern, and flood potential would greatly increase if the global sea-level rise expected in the near future is also considered.  相似文献   

Mantle–crust interactions during Variscan subduction in the Eastern Alps (Nonsberg–Ulten zone): geochronology and new petrological constraints     

Simone Tumiati  Martin Thni  Paolo Nimis  Silvana Martin  Volkmar Mair 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2003,210(3-4):509-526

We have analyzed the Sm–Nd and Rb–Sr whole-rock and mineral isotope systematics of garnet peridotites and associated eclogites and migmatitic gneisses from the Nonsberg–Ulten zone of the Eastern Alps. The garnet peridotites include coarse-grained varieties, characterized by well-preserved to slightly modified mantle geochemical signatures, and finer-grained varieties enriched in amphibole and LILE. Hydration of some of the most strongly deformed, fine-grained peridotites by crustal fluids caused isotopic disequilibrium between the peridotite minerals, preventing accurate age determinations. The coarse-grained peridotites, the eclogites and the country migmatitic gneisses yield garnet–whole-rock and garnet–clinopyroxene Sm–Nd ages that indicate for all rock types an isotopic homogenization event at ca. 330 Ma. The similar ages suggest that all rock types shared a common history since the incorporation of the peridotites in the crust, and constrain the garnet-facies metamorphism of the peridotites, as well as partial melting of the crust, to an episode of crustal subduction at the end of the Variscan orogenic cycle.  相似文献   

Lateral variations of seismic intensity attenuation in Italy   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Francescantonia Carletti  Paolo Gasperini 《Geophysical Journal International》2003,155(3):839-856

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An integrated geophysical investigation of the upper crust in the epicentral area of the 1980, M_s=6.9, Irpinia earthquake (Southern Italy)     

Luigi Improta  Mariateresa Bonagura  Paolo Capuano  Giovanni Iannaccone   《Tectonophysics》2003,361(1-2):139-169

In this paper, we investigate the upper crustal structure of the Irpinia region, Southern Apennines thrust belt, Italy, through analysis and joint interpretation of gravity data, seismic reflection lines and subsurface information from many deep wells. The investigated region includes the epicentral area of the 1980 (M_s=6.9) Irpinia earthquake and is one of the Italian regions with the highest seismic hazard. The upper crustal structure is imaged by modeling a series of 15 SW-trending gravity profiles, spaced about 5 km apart, plentifully constrained by seismic reflection lines and wells, thus reducing the inherent ambiguity of the gravity modeling. Despite of the complexity of the modeled Bouguer anomalies, the application of a calibrating procedure to constrain the range of variability of the density values, as well as the use of geometric constraints, results in a good level of stability in the final density cross-sections, which in fact appear coherent both in the density values and in the geometrical features. The inferred model shows important lateral density variations that can be mostly related to NW-trending geologic structures. High-density bodies delineate carbonate platform thrust sheets and broad antiforms involving Mesozoic basinal rocks, while low-density shallow bodies are associated with Pliocene basins. In addition, important density (i.e. lithological) variations are evident along the strike of the range, the most relevant being an abrupt deepening of the Apulia Carbonate Platform in the southeastern part of the investigated region. In the epicentral region of the 1980 event, we find that the geometry of the high-density, high-velocity carbonates of the Apulia Platform appears correlated with the distribution of the aftershocks and with the P-wave velocity anomaly pattern as inferred from a previous local earthquake tomography. The structural highs of the Apulia Platform correspond to high-velocity regions, where aftershocks and coseismic slip of the mainshock are concentrated. This correlation suggests that the Apulia Carbonate Platform geometry played an important role in the rupture propagation and in the aftershock distribution.  相似文献   

Seismic analysis of the Asinelli Tower and earthquakes in Bologna     

Paolo Riva  Federico Perotti  Emanuela Guidoboni  Enzo Boschi 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》1998,17(7-8)

The existence of a valuable historical heritage of the Medieval age in Bologna has motivated a deeper study on the seismic behaviour of the Asinelli Tower, which, beyond being the town symbol, has a structural configuration prone to seismic damage. Accordingly, in the present paper, the seismicity of Bologna is reviewed and a synthesis of the damage observed in the urban area, based on an accurate historical research, is given, with the objective of evaluating the behavior of the Asinelli Tower within the framework of the effects localized in the municipality. An assessment of the tower's stability with respect to compatible seismic events, at least qualitatively, with the region seismicity is then carried out by means of a non-linear dynamic analysis on a simplified model.  相似文献   

Galaxy formation and evolution: low-surface-brightness galaxies     

Raul Jimenez  Paolo Padoan  Francesca Matteucci  & Alan F. Heavens 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,299(1):123-138

We investigate in detail the hypothesis that low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBs) differ from ordinary galaxies simply because they form in haloes with large spin parameters. We compute star formation rates using the Schmidt law, assuming the same gas infall dependence on surface density as used in models of the Milky Way. We build stellar population models, predicting colours, spectra and chemical abundances. We compare our predictions with observed values of metallicity and colours for LSBs, and find excellent agreement with all observables. In particular, integrated colours, colour gradients, surface brightness and metallicity match very well to the observed values of LSBs for models with ages larger than 7 Gyr and high values (λ > 0.05) for the spin parameter of the haloes. We also compute the global star formation rate (SFR) in the Universe due to LSBs, and show that it has a flatter evolution with redshift than the corresponding SFR for normal discs. We furthermore compare the evolution in redshift of [ Zn / H ] for our models to those observed in damped Lyman α systems by Pettini et al. and show that damped Lyman α system abundances are consistent with the predicted abundances at different radii for LSBs. Finally, we show how the required late redshift of collapse of the halo may constrain the power spectrum of fluctuations.  相似文献   

The bias field of dark matter haloes     

Paolo Catelan  Francesco Lucchin  Sabino Matarrese  & Cristiano Porciani 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,297(3):692-712

Accepted 1998 January 26. Received 1998 January 26; in original form 1997 August 13This paper presents a stochastic approach to the clustering evolution of dark matter haloes in the Universe. Haloes, identified by a Press–Schechter-type algorithm in Lagrangian space, are described in terms of 'counting fields', acting as non-linear operators on the underlying Gaussian density fluctuations. By ensemble-averaging these counting fields, the standard Press–Schechter mass function as well as analytic expressions for the halo correlation function and corresponding bias factors of linear theory are obtained, extending the recent results by Mo & White. The non-linear evolution of our halo population is then followed by solving the continuity equation, under the sole hypothesis that haloes move by the action of gravity. This leads to an exact and general formula for the bias field of dark matter haloes, defined as the local ratio between their number density contrast and the mass density fluctuation. Besides being a function of position and 'observation' redshift, this random field depends upon the mass and formation epoch of the objects and is both non-linear and non-local. The latter features are expected to leave a detectable imprint on the spatial clustering of galaxies, as described, for instance, by statistics like the bispectrum and the skewness. Our algorithm may have several interesting applications, among which is the possibility of generating mock halo catalogues from low-resolution N -body simulations.  相似文献   

Excursion set approach to the clustering of dark matter haloes in Lagrangian space     

Cristiano Porciani  Sabino Matarrese  Francesco Lucchin  & Paolo Catelan 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,298(4):1097-1112

We present a stochastic approach to the spatial clustering of dark matter haloes in Lagrangian space. Our formalism is based on a local formulation of the 'excursion set' approach by Bond et al., which automatically accounts for the 'cloud-in-cloud' problem in the identification of bound systems. Our method allows us to calculate correlation functions of haloes in Lagrangian space using either a multidimensional Fokker–Planck equation with suitable boundary conditions, or an array of Langevin equations with spatially correlated random forces. We compare the results of our method with theoretical predictions for the halo autocorrelation function considered in the literature, and find good agreement with the results recently obtained within a treatment of halo clustering in terms of 'counting fields' by Catelan et al. Finally, the possible effect of spatial correlations on numerical simulations of halo merger trees is discussed.  相似文献   

Extinction versus backscatter relationships for lidar applications at 351 nm: maritime and desert aerosol simulations and comparison with observations     

Francesca Barnaba  Ferdinando De Tomasi  Gian Paolo Gobbi  Maria Rita Perrone  Anna Tafuro 《Atmospheric Research》2004,70(3-4):229-259

Functional relationships linking at λ₀=351 nm aerosol extinction α_λ0^aer and backscatter coefficient β_λ0^aer of maritime and desert type aerosols are determined to allow for inversion of the single-wavelength lidar signals. Such relationships are derived as mean behavior of 20,000 extinction versus backscatter computations, performed for aerosol size distributions and compositions whose describing parameters are randomly chosen within the naturally observed variability. For desert-type aerosols, the effect of the particle non-sphericity is considered and it is shown that the extinction to backscatter ratio of non-spherical dust particles can be up to 60% larger than the values obtained for spherical particles. Aerosol extinction and backscatter coefficient profiles obtained inverting the single-wavelength lidar signal with the modeled relationships are then compared to the same profiles measured by a combined elastic-Raman lidar operating at 351 nm. Analytical back trajectories and satellite images are used to characterize advection patterns during lidar measurements and to properly choose the modeled functional relationship. A good accordance between the two techniques is found for advection patterns over the lidar site typical of maritime and dust conditions. Maximum differences between the model-based α_λ0^aer and β_λ0^aer vertical profiles and the corresponding ones measured by the combined elastic-Raman lidar technique are of 30% and 40% in maritime and desert dust conditions, respectively. The comparison of elastic-Raman lidar measurements and model-based results also reveals that particle non-sphericity must be taken into account when mineral dust-type aerosols are directly advected over the measurement site.  相似文献   

Observations of Atmospheric Solitary Waves in the Urban Boundary Layer     

M. P. Rao  Paolo Castracane  Stefano Casadio  Daniele Fuá  Giorgio Fiocco 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2004,111(1):85-108

The simultaneous operation of a three-axis Doppler sodar system in the centralurban area of Rome and two similar systems in the suburban area, forming atriangle about 20 km on each side, provided evidence of solitary-type wavesin the urban boundary layer. Three events, each lasting from a few minutes toabout 30 min, and ranging in depth from the minimum range of the sodar (39 m) to over 500 m, are reported here. Two events were recognizable onall three sodar records while the third event could be observed at the urbanlocation only. Time-height acoustic echo intensity records showed no-echoregions within the wave indicating transport of trapped recirculating air.This is typical of large amplitude solitary waves. The time series plots ofsodar-derived vertical wind velocity revealed a maximum peak-to-peakvariation of about 5 m s^-1 during periods of wave-associated disturbance.The vertical velocity is found to increase with height up to the top of the closedcirculation within the wave and decreases further above. The normalisedamplitude-wavelength relationship for the two events indicates that theobserved waves are close to a strongly nonlinear regime.  相似文献